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The Case for Donald Trump in 2024

Updated: Jan 8

The Original Outlaw


By Max Knight (@Maximus_4EVR)

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Donald Trump is WANTED in 2024
No traditional Republican can win in 2024, just as no traditional Republican won in 2008 and 2012. Only the person who took out Hillary in 2016 can limit Biden to one-term.

Conservative pundits arguing a switch from Trump to DeSantis make zero sense. I will breakdown these arguments here as I make the case for Donald Trump:


The Electability Argument


First, consider electability. We hear about "electability" every four years from GOP experts who promised "President McCain" and "President Romney", instead we got stuck with eight years of Barack.


And where, may I ask, has DeSantis actually been elected? Florida. After barely getting elected in 2018, he won reelection during a Republican year in a state that is so red these days, it would be hard for any Republican to lose. It is important to note, Trump won Florida twice too, and he did so during Democrat waves.


In addition, President Trump won a national election in 2016, and if we are being honest, he also won in 2020.


But let's assume he lost 2020. Okay. He "lost" it in a few select areas (Milwaukie, Philadelphia, Detroit, Maricopa and Fulton County) — deep blue areas, with the exception of Maricopa which is trending blue. Does anyone think DeSantis can do better in these areas? C'mon, man.


In contrast, President Trump is the only person to defeat the Clinton and Bush machines, and erase Obama's legacy. This guy is a proven winner and had we listened to the "electability" arguments back in 2016, we would have nominated another Florida Governor in Jeb Bush, lost an election, and be enjoying a second term of President Hilary Clinton today. Yuck.



The Better Debater

Second, who is the better debater? Think Ron is a good debater? He hasn't been standing next to Donald on stage. Ron's gentrification would be exploited by Trump. I sincerely hope it doesn't come to this, but I'm afraid Donald Trump would roast Ron for no good reason (think Jeb 2.0).


Back in 2016, the Donald debated another popular Florida politician on stage and eviscerated him politically. Marco Rubio never recovered from those exchanges.


Now, Ron would likely seek to hurt Trump over his consistent support for an unpopular vaccine.


"But Ron is fighting against the vaxx, Max!" Yes, and I'm glad he is! Back in July 2021, Ron quipped "these vaccines are saving lives". Glad he saw the light!


So, what about Trump's continued support of the vaccine? Well, first, that's his choice. Several Conservatives are vaxxed and that's that. Some aren't (like me). Both sides have cult-like obsessions with this issue. I digress.


But back in the early days of 2020, the novel Coronavirus was a frightening monster we knew little about. There was no question something needed to be done and a government push to develop a workable vaccine as rapidly as possible made sense. In the context of that moment (circa Summer of 2020), Donald Trump certainly made the right call.


What happened *after* he left office was not his fault. Biden & Co. used the pandemic to consolidate power and expand Executive overreach, and it took over a year for SCOTUS to start striking him down. By then, the country was divided over a stupid flu.


President Trump can make this argument to both sides and come out the hero. To the left, it's because of him that they have their precious vaccine, and for the right he never supported mandates and fought to open up the country, recognizing we shouldn't live in fear of a bug.


In short, President Trump is in the stronger position, morally and ethically, regardless of what position he takes on the vaccine issue, to take out Biden.


It should be pointed out too, Ron nearly always speaks best in controlled environments. Whenever he ventures out to do interviews with the MSM, he is awkward (which is why they are seldom replayed). While President Trump will do any interview, with anyone, in any place. This is not always the best strategy as he is prone to act like a color commentator for the WWE, but many times, like in the case of the recent CNN Town Hall, it plays to his strengths.



A Winner

Third, Trump can win. Bigly. No really, he's done it before and will do it again. "I don't get in to lose", the Donald once exclaimed.


Truly, the cards are stacked against him, and the anticipation is he'll lose, but that is exactly what people thought in 2016. Underestimating Trump is a source of his power. Overestimating his capabilities usually leads to disappointment.


In 2020, everyone expected him to win.


Fast forward to 2024, do you think he's not ready for anything? 2024 will not be a rerun of 2020. They won't be able to do what they did then. Look how tough a time they had in 2022 - they lost the House and several State Legislatures! They know they're going to lose the Senate in '24.


"Well, Max", you say, "other Republicans can win. Ron DeSantis is a tough guy and won in a landslide." Yes, he is and his day will come.


But as I suggested before, winning Florida is not winning the nation. Ron has not won anything but his home state, while President Trump has won an entire nation.


Remember, the Donald flipped WI, MI, PA, and came close in Minnesota in 2016. He did this by appealing to blue collar Democrats. You think a gentrified Republican can do that? Name me one other Republican in the past thirty years that won the Rust Belt. I'll wait.....


Now, I'm not saying the road is an easy one, for any Conservative, but President Trump is back in the saddle of being an outsider and, more or less, self-funded, just as he was in 2016. Unencumbered and dialed into people's needs (look at his perfect messaging in Ohio), he will repeat history.


That's a winning formula for the perfect cup of tea.


Unconventional Style

Fourth, President Trump has taken a very unconventional strategy – he is running a conventional campaign! Over the past several weeks, he has issued several policy proposals, usually with an accompanying video.


Energy sector analyses, detailed border security, a clearly articulated foreign policy known as Trump Doctrine (as I have discussed at my popular Civics Maximus Seminars). These types of coherent policy proposals were what was lacking in 2016, and only slightly expressed during 2020.


President Trump has also hired a full staff of seasoned campaigners to manage his operations and deferred to their strategies, something he did not do in 2016, and eschewed in 2020.


The change in tone is evident and visible in his recent stop in Ohio, while he addressed the concerns of the people there. The retail politicking on full display in stops at a McDonald’s with workers and guests was out of character for Donald Trump, who usually holds big rallies.


In my opinion, this is an excellent switch-up, and it is will surely confuse his adversaries. Trump is renowned for his brash attitude. A more disciplined President Trump will throw opponents off.


Remember Rocky II? Rocky Balboa switched styles from southpaw to right-handed and this confused Apollo Creed in the ring.


This is a good start to a great year ahead.


He's Leading in the Polls

Fifth, President Trump is pulling way ahead of Ron DeSantis in all polling - state and national. Following his Ohio tour in March, Trump started to pull away from DeSantis. After the fake Indictment (while Ron dithered on a response), he blew the race wide open.


The most recent polling from Rasmussen has Trump leading DeSantis 62% to 17% and in the Harvard-Harris poll 58% to 16%.

Trump defeating DeSantis.
The trends from national polls show Trump ascending and DeSantis declining. Courtesy Real Clear Politics.

This is obviously the result of Trump's new strategy and inner circle, or Brain Trust, which is running his 2024 Campaign.


It is also partly because as I predicted, Donald Trump does better in a crowded field, and it appears Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, and now Chris Christie are siphoning votes away from Ron.


The strategy being the more "Never Trump" or "not Trump again" candidates in the race, the more voters who prefer someone else, will split their "not Trump again" vote during the primary, but still vote for him in the general (which is all that counts).


This is what happened in the 2016 GOP Primary. Trump won most of the primary with around 35-40% of the vote. What that meant is *most* Republicans voted against him in the primary then backed him when it was clear he would prevail. Remember the "Cruz Crew"?


What is funny is DeSantis' support is weaker than Ted Cruz's in 2016 and reminiscent of Mitt Romney's in 2012. That is because he does not have a solid fan base. What no one understands is weak candidates who do not develop a strong organic base either lose primaries or lose general elections.


As I said in early 2016, Donald Trump has "fans" not "supporters" and that will be the difference in November 2024.


The only exception to this rule in recent election history is Joe Biden in 2020. He had no base. No organic support. Yet "won". And if you believe he honestly won, I have a bridge to Mars I'd like to sell you.



The MAGA Factor

Sixth, most of the support DeSantis has comes from MAGA (Never Trumpers are such an insignificant factor, I do not even bother focusing much on them). Whatever "support" Ron has is cross-over support from Trump. I mean, I like DeSantis myself and would vote for him if he were the nominee, but I will vote for Trump over DeSantis in the primary. See, that is the problem Ron has, the MAGA Base is Trump's Base: he needs to rely on MAGA voters to be competitive.


DeSantis running at best hinges on his support amongst MAGA faithful splitting from Trump and that isn't going to happen. After all, why should I go with an imitation when I can have the real thing?


Which is why he is suffering in early states, such as New Hampshire, a state Trump won in 2016. The last Emerson poll had Trump leading DeSantis 58% to 17%, with a recent UNH poll having Trump up 42% to 22%.


The NH Primary follows the Iowa Caucus. Trump will dominate IA and if he wins NH too, he will be unbeatable. Historically, the winner of the first two goes on to win the primary.


After NH, comes the SC Primary (or Nevada depending on some variables) and I just cannot see SC Voters flocking to DeSantis if he drops two to Trump to start the race. After SC comes Florida and while DeSantis may win Florida (I say "may" because who knows?), Trump having likely won the first three will rebound in Nevada and the Midwest.


Defeating Biden

Finally, Trump can defeat Biden in 2024. Why would anyone think otherwise? The latest Harvard-Harris poll out this week shows him leading Biden 47%-40%. He has been leading Biden in the RCP Avg of all polls for months.


Compare both 2016 and 2020, where Donald Trump never led in the RCP Avg, but trailed his Dem opponents in virtually all national polls.


For example, in 2020, Biden led Donald Trump in all national polling by a 7.2% avg. He "won" by 4.5%. Today, the RCP average has Donald Trump up by 1.4%.


Now, I distrust polls, but they are all we have to go by for gauging outcomes. Historically, they are off by a few percentage points in favor of the Dem.


If Trump is up by a 1.4% avg, that presents an 8.9% swing from Biden to Trump in the RCP average since 2020. I'd say that is a good starting point.


Who's the Boss? Trump.

President Trump's CNN Town Hall was a surreal and seminal moment for many. It unhinged the left and refortified his already yuge base.


It started low key, only to evolve into a wonderfully executed and brisk impromptu conversation, where he took questions from random supporters and was challenged on key policy proposals.


And here is where he shined, in a way we do not often see...President Trump engaged with uncommitted voters in an important swing state.


He is not a politician. Donald Trump is an extraordinary, yet relatable human being. He fielded any question handed to him in unprepared responses that hit their mark because of their brute honesty. No canned replies like a conventional politician.


Trump is able to connect with people's concerns, because his concerns are our concerns. He doesn't come off as high and mighty or sanctimonious like an elitist.


But he does come off as genuine and real. Other candidates cannot do this. You know why? Because Donald Trump is not a political elitist. Rather, he's a blue-collar billionaire.


Politicians speak in platitudes. Albeit, some are witty, but all their words are merely rehearsed phrases written by hired staff and intended to be sound bites.


These are just some of the reasons I love this man, and why I will vote for him for the third straight time... and why he will win, yet again. ~Max Follow me on Telegram here.

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Shelley B
Shelley B
May 24, 2023

Your best article yet. I agree with your thoughts 100%


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