By Francisco Loves Freedom
An objective analysis of the ABC Debate by a numbers' guru extraordinaire.
I took 16 pages of notes during the ABC debate, scoring it numerically. The results were interesting. I was fortunate enough to be watching the Debate with my friend @Maximus_4EVR at his Fireside Chat, as we discussed each question, comment, rebuttal, facial expression, and nuance the candidates made, I kept score. My initial take-away was Harris had the edge (in the eyes of undecided voters) with an onslaught of character attacking one-liners that the MSM will play 24-7 for the next 55 days. This may be the case, and it may help drive greater Democrat turnout. Max had a slightly different take.
Anyway, let's dive into this debate and objectively pressure test if Harris truly did win, and what this means for the trajectory of Election 2024.
Quantitative Breakdown
My notes show Harris landed 55 shots to the body vs. 48 landed by Trump, definitely much closer than I thought it would be. Accounting for the two head shots that Harris landed on herself (calling Hamas terrorists and saying that she's stood with Israel her whole life is going to hurt her in Michigan), I'll adjust the score to 55 Harris and 50 for Trump. No knockout, but Harris is the winner by a narrow decision in my scoring.
Trafalgar conducted a pre- and post-debate poll that showed ZERO change in voting preference, despite the fact that the respondents thought that Harris won the debate by a large margin. This is significant because going into the debate several MSM "A" rated polls have the race in a dead heat, which correlate to Trump winning the EC (however close the winning vote margin in the BG states may be) with a 97% probability. If Harris didn't move the needle, she lost the debate.
A CNN poll had Harris in a blowout, but on the issue of who will be better for the economy, Trump went from a 6-point lead over Harris pre-debate to a 10-point lead post-debate.
A Democracy Institute poll with appropriate crosstabs shows Trump winning the debate 45%, Harris at 34%, and 21% calling it a draw. Importantly, when asked whether they were more or less likely to vote for Trump after the debate, Trump picked up a net gain of +5 while Harris only picked up 1 point.
A C-Span poll of over 250k respondents says 72% of respondents thought Trump won.
CNN says that Harris made 48-character attacks on President Trump vs the 26 that Trump hit Harris with. From reviewing my notes, approximately 85% of Harris comments were attacks on Trump and platitudes vs. approximately 50% of Trump's comments falling into these categories. Does this help or hurt Harris? Given that almost one third of voters want to understand her policies better, I contend that it hurts her.
Qualitative Analysis
Reuters, CNN and New York Times focus groups had undecideds leaning more in favor of Trump than Harris post-debate.
Harris' exaggerated facial expressions and relentless character attacks could be a turn off to low propensity to vote male voters. Just as Trump's personality turns many people off, so does Harris'.
Trump rambled frequently, was not sharp and clearly did not practice for the debate or have a messaging strategy and game plan. He missed a golden opportunity to field every question with a version of "Are you better off than you were 4 years ago when it comes to inflation? Here is my plan to bring it down. My opponent has had 3.5 years to fix it and has failed to do so." Insert "border", "crime", "wars" etc. for "inflation" and rinse and repeat.
Comparatively, Harris was overly rehearsed and scripted. It did not come off as extemporaneous.
My gut reaction to Harris wanting another debate is that she executed her game plan and thinks she won, and she knows her internals have her down and that she needs to make up more ground. And she saw how easy it was to get Trump to take the bait and get under his skin.
Finally, Trump kept his composure for the most part. Harris clearly wanted him to snap but he did not cross the line in my opinion. If he had, this would have damaged his chance. Max's take was slightly different, believing the debate was a draw and there would be little-to-no impact on undecides; the behavior of the moderators turning off many voters. On that note, I want to encourage you to join Max for a Fireside Chat the next time he holds one. We, as a group, had a wonderful time! Email RoxieBalboa1@gmail.com for more information.
Conclusion
A wasted opportunity for President Trump. Yes, it was a 3 on 1 mugging, and the questions were all blatantly geared to make Trump look bad, but if he had prepped, he could have handled it. Will it impact the election? There may be a minor Harris polling bump, but I expect it will dissipate by October 1st. Do I think Harris' performance (and the MSM replaying her one liners 24-7) will increase democrat turnout significantly? I do not. You can't pay for groceries with "vibes." As much as it was a wasted opportunity for Trump, the debate was also a wasted opportunity for Harris. America deserved better.
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